Markets opened slightly lower in the U.S. following Thanksgiving as reports emerged about the Trump administration's plans to escalate the trade war with China. Despite this, November is set to be the best month for the Dow since 1987, and the best month in history for European markets. Analysts estimate a further 10% increase in December fueled by holiday spending. 

Trade War:

• Reports indicate that the Trump administration will add SMIC, the top Chinese chipmaker, and CNOOC, a top offshore oil and gas producer, to the blacklist of Chinese businesses unable to operate in the U.S. 
• The administration claims that the blacklists consist solely of companies that intelligence agencies have found to be private Chinese military companies. 
• Insiders have questioned the timing of the move. While it will create additional political friction between Washington and Beijing, the actual financial impact could be limited, given the uncertainty of President-elect Joe Biden's willingness to continue the trade war. 

International Markets:

• The pan-European Stoxx 600, which tracks the top stocks across Europe, is up 14.8% this month. 
• As of 9:30 a.m. ET, the DAX is up 0.7% and the CAC 40 is up 0.56%. The FTSE 100 is down 0.27% as the U.K. prepares to leave the EU at the end of this year. 
• Asian markets closed down on the day – the Shangai Composite by 0.29%, Hang Seng by 1.78%, and Nikkei by 0.79%. 

December Forecast:

• Jeff Saut of Capital Wealth Planning estimates that the S&P 500 will top 4,000 before the end of 2021. It currently sits at ~3,625.
• At the end of last week, markets had already gained 83% from the bottom of the crash in March 2020. 
• The logic behind investors advocating for market increases is that many investors' fears concerning COVID-19 have caused them to stockpile cash. As vaccines get approved and the specter of COVID-19 drifts away, that money will reenter the markets. 

Stock Picks:

• Autodesk – CNBC and Motley Fool have recommended this stock as a buy. It is the industry-standard design software. With increasing pushes to redesign everything from buildings, cars, roads, factories, etc., to curb the effects of climate change, the company has excellent potential. The stock surged 5% on Nov. 25 following its Q3 results and has 11% upside potential per Oppenheimer. 
• Karyopharm Therapeutics – Recommended by healthcare analyst Edward White of HC Wainwright. The company focuses on therapeutics for cancer and other deadly diseases; he gave the company 178% upside potential in his Nov. 25 rating. As healthcare investment flows into companies with COVID-19 related medications, there appears to be an opportunity to invest in companies focused on other diseases.

Let us know what you think. Feel free to click 'reply' to this email to let us know your reasoning.

Black Friday 2020 saw online shopping increase 22% YoY while in-store shopping fell 52.1% YoY. It is expected that online sales today, Cyber Monday, will set a record for the U.S. 

E-Commerce:

• Adobe is estimating spending on Cyber Monday to be $10.8B to $12.7B. 
• Consumers spent ~$9B online on Black Friday. Data shows that $6.3M was spent per minute on Friday in the U.S. 
• The average American spent $27.50 online on Black Friday.
• Spending on Black Friday increased most noticeably for personal care products (up 556% YoY), groceries (up 397% YoY), and pet products (up 254% YoY). 

Retail:

• Sensormatic Solutions estimated a decrease in overall in-person retail store shopping of 22-25%.
• Traffic on Thanksgiving itself was down 94.9%, primarily due to some retailers, including Walmart, deciding to remain closed.
• Curbside pickup was up 52% YoY.

Salesforce is reportedly in talks to acquire Slack, with a deal expected to be announced by Tuesday evening. The acquisition would value Slack at more than $17B and would be Salesforce's biggest acquisition to date.

Salesforce's major acquisitions:

• Tableau - $15.7B 
• MuleSoft - $6.5B
• Slack's market cap before the news broke out - $17B

More:

• Salesforce acquired Tableau in 2019 to compete with Microsoft's Power BI. It could be acquiring Slack (12.5 million DAUs as of March 2020) to compete with Microsoft Teams, which has 115 million users. 
• Teams have grown mainly due to the reach of Microsoft's platform and its ability to integrate with other Microsoft products. Slack filed an antitrust complaint with the EU, alleging Microsoft is unfairly providing Teams at no additional cost by including Teams into its Office 365 bundle.
• Salesforce leads the CRM market, but it had only a 20% market share in 2019. Microsoft's Dynamics had 2.6%. Last month, Microsoft launched a new CRM in collaboration with C3.ai and Adobe. During the launch, C3.ai's CEO Sibel said that the companies want to project revenue, but the available CRM technologies are inaccurate. He added that most companies approaching them are existing Salesforce users.
• Salesforce lost its bid to acquire LinkedIn (to Microsoft) in 2016. Salesforce reportedly caused Microsoft to pay $4.7B more in the $26B deal. 
• Salesforce stock fell by 8% and Slack's stock price rose by 44% since the news broke of the potential deal last week.
• Slack’s share price growth has been moderate compared to other cloud softwares including Salesforce and Zoom.

S&P Global is acquiring IHS Markit in a $44B deal, combining two of the largest Wall Street data providers. Before the announcement of the deal, S&P Global had a market valuation of $82B, and London-based IHS had a market cap of $37B. S&P Global will own 68% of the combined entity, and IHS Markit shareholders will own 0.28 shares of S&P Global share for each IHS Markit share.

More:

• S&P Global was founded in 1860. It is popular for its bond ratings and its S&P 500 stock-market index. IHS Markit was formed in 2016 by the merger of IHS and London-based Markit (in a $13B deal), and the combined entity moved to London to lower its tax rates. IHS Market tracks millions of data points in the financial market and has software that is used by large Wall Street banks for stock underwriting.
• In 2018, the Blackstone group acquired a majority stake in Thomson Reuters’ financial data division – Refinitiv – at a $20B valuation. London Stock Exchange acquired Refinitiv at an enterprise value of $27B in 2019.
• Market share of the top three financial data providers as of 2019:
  • Bloomberg - 32.7%
  • Refinitiv - 21.4%
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence - 6%
• Financial market data providers' revenue reached $32B in 2019, a 5.6% YoY increase. 
• IHS Markit's share price rose by 8% and S&P Global's stock price fell by 0.5% on the deal announcement.

Series A funding tracker: Last week, at least 21 companies had raised around $269M in series A funding. 

Top three categories:

• Healthcare - 33%
• Transportation and Logistics - 25%
• Fintech - 16%

Top three companies:

• Medadom enables telemedicine service through web and kiosks. It raised $47M. 
• Catamaran Bio develops cancer treatments. It raised $42M from investors including Lightstone Ventures and Sofinnova Partners. 
• Gatik provides an autonomous delivery network for short-haul range, and raised $25M from investors including Innovation Endeavors and Wittington Ventures.

Quick Hits:

• During this holiday season, find out how SimpliSafe is protecting over 3 million homes with less markup and more security.*
• Nikola shares fell 20% as GM lowes its equity stake in a renegotiated deal. 
• Thanksgiving air-travel sets a new pandemic record. 
• DoorDash is seeking a $32b valuation in its IPO. 
• The U.K. will ban Huawei 5G equipment starting in September 2021. 
• A post-election survey shows that small business confidence has crashed to an all-time low. 
• Revtown’s changing the denim game by applying the best parts of workout clothes—comfort, flexibility & durability—to jeans.*

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